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Picking an MVP in advance of a typical NFL season is difficult. Remember last year? The trendiest candidates heading into the regular season were Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield and Mitchell Trubisky. Not ideal. Wentz had a good season without ever seriously getting in the MVP hunt, and Mayfield and Trubisky collapsed. Nobody was talking about Lamar Jackson, who was 50-1 at the Caesars Sportsbook to take home the trophy. The Ravens’ star threw five touchdown passes in the opener in Miami and never looked back.
This year, trying to identify the league MVP before the season begins is even more difficult. Players are going to opt out. We have no idea what the regular season will look like. There’s a chance that we will see a 16-game schedule in front of limited fans or an eight-game campaign in front of no fans. A shortened season in 1982 led to the strangest MVP selection in the history of American sports. It could do the same thing in 2020.
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Last summer, I suggested that there were 233 players who could win league MVP. One of those players was Jackson. Of course, you should be able to name the MVP if you get 233 choices, but that’s not the point. By using history to run through the various MVP options, we get a sense of how much variance the NFL deals with in a season and how much our opinions on players can change in a matter of games. It’s also useful to point out what the great non-quarterbacks in the league would need to do to get into MVP consideration and just how repeated some of the past winners were before they made their star turns.
This year, I’ve expanded the possibilities. I’ve nominated 260 players for MVP consideration and split them into nine categories. For each category, I’ll pick the player I think has the best and worst chance of winning. I’m pretty sure one of these 260 players is going to win the award. In this year of all years, though, anything is possible.
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